Earthquake Speculation
Zip Dobyns
The Sagittarius 1991 Mutable Dilemma included a discussion of a new book on Nostradamus with the author’s unique way of interpreting the famous psychic’s predictions. As I wrote in my review of the forecasts, most of them seem quite unlikely, especially the details of a predicted major quake in southern California on May 8, 1993 at 7:05 P.M. (The details included a San Andreas fault quake which is to last for at least nine minutes, to “set off” an ocean quake causing a tsunami hitting the coast from Costa Rica almost to San Francisco in California, San Diego sinking into the ocean, highways destroyed so people have to walk to get away from the devastated area, and so much damage that the whole country would go into an economic tailspin. None of these details are even remotely possible). But the prediction reminded me of a long-delayed desire to look at our U.S.A. charts (the Constitution and the Declaration of Independence) calculated for the major west coast cities and progressed through the rest of this decade, to see whether I could spot a time when the patterns looked like a “big one” which we know is coming some time.
I was also spurred into the project by California earthquake predictions made by two psychics and printed in the February 1992 issue of The Mountain Astrologer. The psychics are Gordon-Michael Scallion of New Hampshire and Jon C Fox of Nevada City, California who claims to channel Hilarion. Scallion was a broadcast engineer. Fox is also said to be an engineer and an inventor. Scallion is credited with an 87% rate of accuracy, but his first predicted date mentioned in the article has come and gone. A “warning” quake with a magnitude greater than 6 was to occur by mid-January 1992 with an epicenter 30 to 50 miles southeast of L.A. As I noted in the Sagittarius 1991 Mutable Dilemma, the 6 moderately large quakes in the L.A. area in the past 4 years have all been under 6 in magnitude and have moved from southeast of L.A. toward the northwest. The last one on June 28, 1991 was in Sierra Madre which is north and west of central L.A. Both Scallion and “Hilarion” are putting out imitations of Edgar Cayce’s predicted earth changes which were supposed to be well under way long before now. Once an idea has been widely disseminated among the public, many “would-be” psychics are likely to imagine variations on the basic idea.
Fortunately, astrologers have an external referent, the sky, which can be misinterpreted but which keeps us at least a little “grounded.” Someday, I will take the time to check the earthquake records for San Diego. At this point, I do not know of any historical record of really big ones in this area yet Scallion predicts a half dozen to come. He says that giant quakes may occur simultaneously in S.D. and S.F., which would really be remarkable, geologically speaking. One or more major quakes and tidal waves in the area of India and Bangladesh are other warning signs. Scallion said that after them, the first big California quakes would begin within two months. India quakes without tidal waves delayed the time table for California big quakes to a period of 24 to 30 months. According to the editor, the recent quake in India was 7.0 but there were no tidal waves. I was in New Zealand for it and have only a note that it occurred on October 20, 1991 so 30 months would include the interval to the spring of 1994. Scallion and Fox seem to agree that their Cayce-scenarios will occur by 1997.
I can’t remember whether I printed the psychic earthquake predictions put out by Inner Vision! Press in Arizona and sent to me by a subscriber. This particular psychic “struck out.” She and her guide were supposedly told by the Mind of the Planetary Divinity that there would be at least 3 massive earthquakes of about magnitude 10 in the general L.A. area between August 8, 1991 and October 23, 1991. The psychic claimed that the probability that the quakes would occur was 98.2%, so I guess the 1.8% won. The dates of the quakes which were supposed to destroy L.A. were specified as September 8, 1991, September 10, 1991, September 17, 1991 and September 24, 1991. The first two were supposed to occur close to L.A.; the last two close to Lake Elsinore. The reason for the quakes was described as “planetary health,” to improve planetary sphericity by readjusting the planetary etheric circuitry. I don’t know about the planetary health, but the health of a lot of humans was improved by not having several magnitude 10 quakes in their vicinity.
Along with psychics, astrologers have tried repeatedly to discover techniques for accurate earthquake forecasting; so far without success. I have wanted to test the idea that our national charts when calculated for the relevant cities and progressed (or arc directed) could be used to pick future times of danger. Especially if the previously mentioned psychics are right, the coming quakes are supposed to financially devastate the whole country so there should be crisis aspects in both the normal charts (for Philadelphia and NY respectively and for Washington, DC) and for the targeted west coast or other endangered cities. There is still enormous controversy over the timing of our Declaration of Independence and I am currently exploring an early afternoon time based on historical records, so I will delay writing about that chart until the next issue of The Mutable Dilemma. Our Constitution is a “firm” chart for our government, set for March 4, 1789 at 0 A.M. LAT (Local Apparent Time) in New York, the seat of the government at that time. I calculated the chart for four west coast cities. L.A. and S.D. have cusps which are only about a degree apart while S.F. and Seattle have almost identical MCs though the Ascendants can vary by several degrees due to the difference in latitude. For this article, I will just include L.A. and S.F. San Diego is unlikely to have a really devastating quake and it is built on hills with most of it out of reach of tsunamis though what is called “Hotel Row” is built on a flood plain and could be vulnerable. However, L.A. is built on several major faults (not the San Andreas which is 35 miles away at its nearest point) so L.A. could be hit at any time and S.F. is near a “stuck” part of the San Andreas which also could jar loose at any time.
I’m sure that all of our readers who actually work with horoscopes have observed that forecasting details is a pretty chancy business. I have seen a great many charts which had strong aspects that lured astrologers into predicting major events only to have the time come and go without anything occurring which was unusual. This is especially true when astrologers limit themselves to transits. Secondary progressions are more reliable but you do need to concentrate on angles (natal or progressed) and cardinal planets—Mars and Saturn with the Moon as a timer. Planets and angles are by far the most important, though cardinal signs may help a little since the cardinal principle suggests something more than an emotional or a mental state. Solar Arc Directions can also be helpful with the same condition; that you focus on angles and cardinal planets. Obviously, you also need a network of aspects, preferably involving all four angle axes: MC-IC, Ascendant-Descendant, East Point-West Point, and Antivertex-Vertex. The first two axes are the most important, but the last two should support their message with some kind of aspect(s). One aspect may alert you to a possible time of action and change, but anything important should have the whole chart involved. When you want to scan most of a decade (1992 through 2000), you can estimate the movement of the angles and planets and look for “appropriate” aspects which seem to justify a closer look that brings in more factors.
Calculating the Constitution for S.F. gives us an MC of 24 Cancer 57 and an Ascendant of 21 Libra 53. In L.A., the MC is 28 Cancer 56 and the Ascendant is 26 Libra 4. We can see that in S.F. P Neptune stays on the Ascendant for many years and it also holds a long quincunx to Mercury in Pisces, Neptune’s sign, and to P south lunar node, forming a yod. P Jupiter holds a long sextile to the S.F. Ascendant, an opposition to natal Venus, ruler of the S.F. Ascendant, and it squares the mean lunar nodes to form a grand cross in fixed signs but partly cardinal houses (the fourth and tenth). Natal Venus is trine the Ascendant so P Neptune maintains that trine, but we can’t rule out major problems on the basis of a trine. All charts will have a mixture of harmony and stress aspects so it is a personal judgment whether the harmony or the stress is stronger, and in the end results always depend partly on how people respond to situations. This type of long-term aspects suggests chronic situations rather than one or a few events. We could relate them to the “romantic” and cosmopolitan aura associated with the city, with its reputation for Aquarian individual freedom including gay rights. Unfortunately, the latter have encouraged a fair amount of promiscuity and AIDS as individuals sought the “ideal” mate.
Major events can occur when cardinal planets move into aspect to such a long-term network of aspects, especially if backed up by many other simultaneous aspects from other factors in the chart. The last major quake in the S.F. area occurred on October 17, 1989. Most of the deaths were due to a double-decker freeway which collapsed in Oakland, across the bay from S.F. Progressing the chart for this event, we see that P Mars had moved into the network described above. At 22 Cancer 17, P Mars squared the S.F. Ascendant and Neptune, formed a double quincunx (yod) to Ceres and Venus, and a grand trine to Mercury and P mean north lunar node along with a sextile to P south node. P Mars had just ended a semisextile to P Jupiter, but other factors kept Jupiter as part of the network of aspects. Clearly, the grand trine did not prevent damage, but it was localized and limited by a variety of factors including the ball game which had sent many people home early to watch TV so they were off the damaged freeways and the Bay Bridge.
Many other aspects involving angles could be mentioned. P MC was opposite P Uranus (a fourth house ruler and theoretical key to quakes). P Ascendant was quincunx Vesta and trioctile P Mercury (key to media coverage). P Antivertex was opposite East point and Juno which are closely conjunct in the natal chart as well as P Venus, and it also was sextile natal Mars and quincunx P Sun to form another yod. P East Point was octile P Chiron and trioctile P Sun. As usual, some aspects had just started, some were close to exact, and some were close to leaving the one-degree orb which is allowed in progressions and directions. As indicated above, P Moon is often the timer and its position at 20 Libra 7 is intriguing. It had not quite reached the network at 22 degrees of a variety of signs so if we had been examining the chart prior to the quake, we might have expected it when the P Moon reached Ascendant-Neptune and squared P Mars. But the Moon was aspecting one of the planets which has traditionally been associated with earthquakes—Saturn. P Saturn had only a trioctile to P Juno (though that is meaningful since Juno is very Plutonian) but P Moon was in orb of a quincunx to P Saturn and P Part of Death (Placidian houses) had just started a trioctile to P Saturn backed up with a square to P Juno. P Moon was also square natal Jupiter and semisextile-quincunx the P true lunar nodes which connected it to the network since the true nodes hold a square to P Jupiter. The network of aspects thus runs from 20 to 22 degrees of many signs with the overlapping orbs connecting all the factors together.
Turning to the current picture and the immediate future, P Mars in Cancer (cardinal planet in cardinal sign) is moving to conjunct the S.F. MC in the late summer or early fall of this year, 1992, and it will hold the conjunction for about three years. P East Point is already in a square to Pluto which also will last about three years counting both natal and P Pluto. P Ascendant will reach natal Moon fairly early in 1993, starting an octile to natal Jupiter about the same time. But P MC seems weak though it is octile Pallas, an aspect it leaves about the time it starts a weak semisextile to natal Saturn in mid-May 1993. P Antivertex has the most stress aspects including a square to Uranus, a quincunx to P Sun and north lunar node (a yod), and an opposition to natal Vesta. The latter is often associated with health or job issues. Two of the planets we mostly associate with earthquakes (Uranus, Pluto and Saturn) do have major aspects to angles but they are the less important angles. Even though the P MC aspect to Saturn is weak, it puts P IC (the fourth house cusp which indicates the land and buildings built on it) into a quincunx to Saturn and toward the end of 1993 into a quincunx to the natal Sun. The aspects seem adequate for another quake similar to 1989 but it is less likely that they are signaling the “big one”.
The prominent Mars would include the potential for fire, but it can mean all kinds of other actions. Natally, it is in the fourth house in S.F., so its passage over the MC could signify damage to houses but it could just as easily indicate a continuing departure of businesses from the city and softening of real estate values. It could also indicate changes of city laws which affect its status in the world. For example, currently a law is being considered which would forbid any smoking in restaurants. Some citizens are pointing out that a major part of S.F.’s income is from European tourists, half of whom are smokers who might take their business elsewhere. P Venus also starts a trioctile to P Saturn in the fall of 1993, connecting the rulers of the first and fourth houses, but the most critical times would seem to be when P Moon squares natal Saturn-Sun in the late summer and early fall of 1993, and its square to P Saturn in the winter of 1993-4. P Moon will also be octile the East Point and P Venus during the square to P Saturn so the winter of 1993-4 could be the most critical.
Of course, aspects between planets where angles are not involved are present in the chart for any geographic area. P Sun starts a trioctile to P Pluto in October 1993. P Venus starts a quincunx to the Moon in the late summer of 1994. Its square to Uranus ends in February 1993 and its quincunx to the south node lasts until about April 1994. Overall, IF this technique proves reliable, an earthquake seems very possible, especially during the Moon-Saturn periods listed above, but a really big one that would destroy the city (Scallion predicts the next S.F. one will be in the “high 8s or low 9s”) seems unlikely to me in the next few years. As one further note, we need to remember that the natal chart in NY where the Constitution went into effect at midnight has the Sun exactly on the IC (using local apparent time) so the P Moon squares to natal Saturn-Sun will include squares to MC-IC. This might tip the scale, emphasizing the earlier period of mid-summer to early fall 1993. This seems more likely if the psychics are right about a widespread effect on the whole country. Of course, it is also possible to have more than one quake during the two periods of P Moon squares to Saturn.
Turning to the Constitution chart calculated for L.A., P MC is coming to P Pluto in the fall of 1992 and it will hold the aspect for about 3 years. P Ascendant currently has only a quincunx to P Juno that might point to financial stress which is certainly present. However, it will move into a trioctile to P Neptune in mid-May, 1993, so it will be connected to the network of aspects at 22 degrees of several signs. P Antivertex is just one degree ahead of the same angle in S.F. but it will be leaving the square to Uranus and the opposition to Vesta in early 1993. The quincunx to the north node ends later in 1993. P East Point starts a conjunction with P south lunar node in the fall of 1992 which will last a couple of years. The most critical aspect could be P Mars reaching the square to the L.A. Ascendant in July 1994. Mars aspects last about three years when it is moving near its maximum speed as it is now. In 1993, P Mercury will be more fully engaged in the network of aspects at 22 degrees when it moves to conjunct P Neptune, trine Venus, sextile P Jupiter, quincunx P south lunar node and natal Mercury, sextile P Pallas, etc. Another important period for P Moon will come when it reaches 21-22 Sagittarius to join the network in the late winter and spring of 1994. P Moon will conjunct P Pallas and natal and P Ceres at that time, and later in the year, it will quincunx P Mars. By 1995, we may know whether this approach is helpful for earthquakes or whether the stress aspects are mostly indications of human stress around money and jobs, hunger, homelessness, and health.
I also looked ahead in the Constitution chart to see when P Mars would reach the L.A. MC and found that it will be at the end of July 1999. Maybe the millennialists have something? P Mars will have already started a quincunx to natal Mars and during July-August-September 1999, P Moon will go over natal Mars and quincunx P Mars-MC. Of course, there will be lots of other aspects. It should be an interesting summer, but it is far enough ahead to give us more time to check out the theory that a country’s chart might be used for such purposes.
